The Role of Cardiovascular Disease in U.S. Life Expectancy; Stalls Due to CVD, Not Drug Deaths

Photo: @jessedo81

There is no doubt that the opioid epidemic has played a disastrous role in health outcomes and mortality in the United States. However, it may not be the primary culprit in life expectancy trends. Throughout the twentieth century U.S. life expectancy increased at an unprecedented rate. That said, in 2010 we saw a stall in life expectancy growth and even a decrease thereafter. Causes of this phenomenon have included the opioid epidemic but more recently cardiovascular disease (CVD) trends have shed new light on life expectancy movement in the United States. Research conducted by HMP Governance Lab collaborator, Professor Neil Mehta (along with co-authors Leah Abrams, a recent University of Michigan School of Public Health PhD graduate, and Mikko Myrskylä), has demonstrated that the stall in U.S. life expectancy may have a greater relation to the prevalence of cardiovascular disease than to drug related deaths.    

Mehta, Abrams, and Myrskylä examined drug-related deaths versus CVD related deaths in their recent publication, titled US Life Expectancy Stalls Due to Cardiovascular Disease, Not Drug Deaths, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). They found that while drug-related deaths contribute to life expectancy rates, CVD is on a level of higher magnitude. An important note from the authors’ is that since 2010, declines in CVD death rates in the U.S. slowed and drug-related deaths increased. This information begs the question, what would life expectancy rates look like if drug-related deaths had stayed fixed at 2010 rates and declines in CVD mortality had not stalled in 2010? To answer this, a simulation was run. The findings showed that if drug-related deaths had stayed fixed and CVD death rates had continued past decline then a slowdown in CVD can be observed impacting U.S. life expectancy rates more significantly than an increasing drug-related mortality.         

The opioid epidemic remains a concern that should be addressed via initiatives. However, as the U.S. continues to lag compared to most of its peers in life expectancy rates, new concepts about barriers, fundamental health and policy issues, and primary health concerns need to be evaluated. All things considered, the new research by Mehta, Abrams, and Myrskylä has demonstrated that in order to begin increasing U.S. life expectancy rates again, CVD should be a prominent focal point for research, response, treatment, and new health policy initiatives.